Seasonality effects on Dengue: basic reproduction number, sensitivity analysis and optimal control

摘要

Dengue is a vector-borne disease transmitted from an infected human to anAedes mosquito, during a blood-meal. Dengue is still a major public healthproblem. A model for the disease transmission is presented, composed by humanand mosquitoes compartments. The aim is to simulate the effects of seasonality,on the vectorial capacity and, consequently, on the disease development. Usingentomological information about the mosquito behavior under differenttemperatures and rainfall, simulations are carried out and the repercussionsanalyzed. The basic reproduction number of the model is given, as well as asensitivity analysis of model's parameters. Finally, an optimal control problemis proposed and solved, illustrating the difficulty of making a trade-offbetween reduction of infected individuals and costs with insecticide.